Forecast horizon of 5^th – 6^th – 7^th long wave and short-period of contraction in economic cycles

 Mario Coccia
National Research Council (Italy)
CERIS-CNR

via Real Collegio, n. 30, 10024 Moncalieri (Torino) - Italy
Tel.: +39 011 68 24 925; fax : +39 011 68 24 966
m.coccia@ceris.cnr.it

Abstract: The purpose of this essay is to determine the forecast horizon of the fifth, sixth and seventh long wave. As the period of each long wave can change according to the data, it has been used a deterministic approach, based on historical chronologies of USA and UK economies worked out by several scholars, to determine average timing, period and forecast error of future long waves. In addition, the analysis shows that long waves have average upwave period longer than average downwave one. This result is also confirmed by US Business Cycles that have average contractions shorter than expansions phase over time.

Keywords: Forecast Horizon, Long Waves, Kondratieff Waves, Business Cycles, Asymmetric Path

 JEL-codes: E30, E37

I wish to thank Silvana Zelli and Diego Margon for research assistance and the Italian National Research Council for its financial support to this research. This article has been accepted at the 38^th Annual Conference of Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia.

SCARICA QUESTO WP