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Ceris-Cnr, W.P. N° 09/2009 Predicting strategic change of public research institutions under unstable negative growth
Mario
Coccia
via Real Collegio, n. 30, 10024
Moncalieri (Torino) - Italy
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to forecast and analyse, by a demographic perspective, the organizational behaviour of public research labs. The research focuses on the biggest Italian public research body. Demographic models of growth, based on different human resource policies, show the uncertain and retrogressive evolutionary change of Italian public research bodies that would halve their research personnel over the forecast horizon. These results provide vital information to the public management about the weaknesses and environmental threats in order to support decisions for improving the strategic change and survival of public research institutions over time.
Keywords: Organizational Studies, Forecasting, Public Research Institutions, Internal Demography JEL-codes: I20, J11, J26
I wish to thank Diego Margon and Silvana Zelli for research assistance and the Italian National Research Council for its financial support to this research. The comments of two anonymous referees and discussions of this topic with Secondo Rolfo (Director of the Ceris-Cnr) have been important for improving the paper.
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