|
Ceris-Cnr, W.P. N° 01/2010
Positive and negative stress
Coccia
Mario
Abstract: The economic theory shows as business cycles have longer periods of expansions than contractions. The purpose of this paper is to analyze their behaviour in order to present a metrics that assesses the negative and positive stress of the economic system. In addition, this analysis presents some forecasting implications supporting modern political economy of growth.
Keywords: Business Cycles, Contraction-compression Economic stress, Economic Forecasting JEL-codes: E30, E37
Previous version of this paper was submitted to TFSC Journal and one referee suggested to focus the original paper on Long Wave behaviour in order to publish it, reducing the part on business cycle behaviour, although it was interesting. This paper presents this part and I would like to thank the reviewers of TFSC and the Editor Harold Linstone for helpful comments and suggestions, as well as Enrico Filippi (University of Torino, Italy) and Secondo Rolfo (Ceris-CNR) for fruitful discussion on this topic. Silvana Zelli, Maria Zittino and Diego Margon provided capable research assistance. The usual disclaimer applies.
|
